EU Enlargement Reaches Decisive Phase: Montenegro’s Accession Treaty Drafting Begins, Albania Targets 2027 Conclusion
For the first time since Croatia joined the European Union in 2013, the bloc is preparing to draft a new accession treaty. On 22 April 2026, EU ambassadors approved the creation of an ad hoc working group dedicated to drafting Montenegro’s accession treaty, marking the most concrete institutional step towards expansion in over a decade. Just weeks later, on 4-9 May 2026, the European Parliament’s committees evaluated the progress made by both Montenegro and Albania, the two Western Balkan frontrunners of the current enlargement wave.
Montenegro: 14 chapters provisionally closed, 19 open
Montenegro began accession negotiations in 2012, but the process was effectively frozen between 2018 and the geopolitical shift triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As of April 2026, the candidate country has provisionally closed 14 of 33 negotiating chapters, with another 19 open. European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos stated that Montenegro could conclude its negotiations by the end of 2026 and become the EU’s 28th member state by 2028. Podgorica’s declared political goal aligns with this timeline. The accession treaty being drafted will, according to the Commission, serve as a blueprint for the next generation of EU accession agreements — incorporating stronger safeguards against backsliding on rule-of-law commitments.
Albania: from candidate to frontrunner in record time
Albania has emerged as one of the most rapidly advancing EU candidate countries. After the European Council formally opened accession negotiations in March 2020, Albania opened all six negotiation clusters in just over a year — an unprecedented pace for a Western Balkan candidate. On 17 November 2025, the seventh EU-Albania Intergovernmental Conference opened the final remaining cluster. Tirana now aims to conclude negotiations by 2027 and join the EU by 2030. Prime Minister Edi Rama, an artist by training, has framed Albania’s accession as an aesthetic and political project: a country reshaped by EU standards.
The fundamentals problem
Both candidates still face the same critical hurdle: meeting the so-called interim benchmarks under Cluster 1 — Fundamentals. This cluster covers the rule of law, judicial reform, the fight against corruption, fundamental rights and the functioning of democratic institutions. For Montenegro, civil society organisations have raised concerns about the government’s actual capacity and political will to implement reforms, with a fragile coalition that includes pro-Serbian and pro-Russian politicians. For Albania, Commissioner Kos warned in November 2025 that this is the moment to accelerate, particularly in justice reform and judicial independence. Without firm progress here, both countries’ optimistic timelines may slip.
Ukraine, Moldova and the broader enlargement debate
The Western Balkan track now intersects with the parallel EU candidacy of Ukraine and Moldova, both of which received candidate status in June 2022 and opened formal accession negotiations in December 2023. Commissioner Kos has indicated that Moldova could close negotiations by early 2028, with Ukraine following on a similar timeline contingent on the broader political situation. The Commission’s preferred enlargement order — Montenegro first, then Albania, Moldova and Ukraine — has reportedly been challenged by some member states, with proposals for a fast-tracked Ukraine path under a so-called “reverse enlargement” model rejected by EU ambassadors on 4 March 2026.
Public opinion and the political risk
According to the latest Eurobarometer data, 45% of EU citizens support Albania’s accession once the country meets the necessary criteria, against 44% expressing opposition — a margin so narrow that a small shift in any major member state’s domestic political climate could become decisive. With far-right and enlargement-sceptical parties continuing to gain ground across Europe, sustained public communication about the Western Balkans’ integration trajectory has become an existential concern for the Commission. The 2025 Enlargement Package presented on 4 November 2025 framed enlargement as a geopolitical imperative; the May 2026 European Parliament evaluations will test whether that framing has translated into political traction.
What the next milestones look like
For Montenegro, the priority is closing the remaining 19 negotiating chapters before the end of 2026 and ensuring that the draft accession treaty addresses both technical alignment and the political question of how to safeguard reforms after accession. For Albania, the priority is meeting the Cluster 1 interim benchmarks, which would unlock the closing process for all chapters. The European Council in June 2026 will receive a formal assessment from the Commission, and political endorsement at that level would put both countries firmly on track for the timelines their governments have publicly declared.
