Macro, markets, ECB, trade, fiscal policy
Faced with a fresh round of tariff threats from the Trump administration, European Union officials are opting for restraint over retaliation — a calculated bet that patience will prove more effective than escalation.
The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting, even as three committee members pushed for a hike amid persistent inflation and rising energy prices driven by Middle East tensions.
The European Commission is expected to launch a formal probe into open mesh fabric imports from the Western Balkans over fears that the goods contain Chinese glass fibre subject to existing EU anti-dumping duties, effectively allowing trade penalties to be bypassed.
A short-lived sense of calm in European energy markets following a US-Iran ceasefire has evaporated as renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz push oil prices sharply higher once again.
The United States has unveiled a fresh round of import tariffs targeting European goods, drawing an immediate response from EU trade officials, while Brussels simultaneously advanced a new package of measures against Russia.
Economics Minister Katherina Reiche has unveiled an ambitious strategy to unlock private risk capital for young German companies, with defence start-ups and relaxed labour rules for high earners among the headline measures.
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and logistics infrastructure are beginning to reverberate through Russia’s financial markets and domestic supply chains, raising strategic questions about the war’s economic endgame.
IEA chief Fatih Birol has urged Europe not to underestimate the potential fallout from a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure, warning that global energy markets leave no country truly insulated from a major supply disruption.
Ireland inherits the EU’s most complex budget negotiation in a generation as its presidency begins 1 July, with a €1.73 trillion MFF deal needed by end-2026.
Brent crude and TTF gas have retreated sharply since G7 Evian, yet an €8 risk premium signals traders remain cautious about the 60-day framework’s durability.