Tories weigh dodging social care battle as Burnham sets election trap

Conservative shadow cabinet members are privately signaling the party may avoid unveiling a major social care plan ahead of the next general election, gambling that Labour’s proposals will collapse under scrutiny. Three members of Kemi Badenoch’s top team told POLITICO that the Tories could opt not to put forward a distinct offer on adult social care, despite widespread agreement that the current system is failing. One opposition frontbencher, granted anonymity to discuss internal policy development, drew a parallel with 2017, when Labour benefited from the backlash against Theresa May’s social care reform plans.

The debate has been reignited by Labour leader Andy Burnham, who used his first conference speech in Liverpool last week to stake his premiership on overhauling social care. Burnham touched on three politically charged areas: EU membership, electoral reform, and altering the state pension “triple lock” to fund a “national care service.” His proposal to weaken the triple lock after the next election, due by 2029, would save an estimated £15 billion a year by 2040, with the savings funneled into social care reform.

Conservative divisions over the triple lock

The triple lock, introduced by the Conservatives in 2011, increases state pensions by the highest of inflation, 2.5%, or average earnings. It is considered sacrosanct by many Tories because it benefits a key voting bloc. However, some senior figures, including former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Shadow Foreign Secretary Tom Tugendhat, have publicly suggested the lock is unsustainable. A third shadow cabinet member said the party whips would work to ensure unity: “I’m sure there will be lots of conversations had with Jeremy [Hunt], and Jeremy is ultimately a loyal Conservative.”

Badenoch has described maintaining the triple lock as “current” Conservative policy and part of the draft manifesto. If the party keeps that stance, it must explain where it would find billions to reverse Labour’s policy. Some Tories argue that savings from altering the triple lock are marginal and that the real answer lies in cutting the working-age welfare bill. A second shadow cabinet minister dismissed Burnham’s plan as “fiddling in the margins” and predicted it would be exposed as “bulls–t” over time.

A deliberate strategy to duck the fight?

Some Conservatives believe the party can simply avoid presenting its own social care plan. “No policy is still a policy,” a third shadow cabinet minister argued, suggesting the Tories could go into the election without a distinct offer to change the status quo. The same minister acknowledged that if forced, the party would need to explain its approach, adding: “But ultimately personal care is something we’ve all got responsibility for through our lives.”

Not all shadow cabinet members are comfortable with this approach. A fourth member called social care “a delicate subject” for the party and insisted: “When we go into an election we need to be giving people something about all the big things in their lives.” The divide reflects a deeper ideological battle over the size of the state. Badenoch, a self-described “classic old-school Conservative,” wants a smaller state, while Burnham is promising greater public control. A fifth shadow cabinet minister framed the fight in historical terms: “Burnham has almost expressly set it up as a battle between the politics of the 1970s against the politics and economics and the philosophy of the 1980s.”

Election campaign pressure looms

Despite the current strategy of downplaying the issue, the heat of an election campaign may force the Conservatives to detail their position. Labour intends to pass legislation on the triple lock change before the next election, setting up a potential Commons vote that could expose Tory divisions. Party enforcers are already working to keep potential rebels in line, with one shadow cabinet member expressing confidence that Hunt will fall in behind the party line.

Burnham’s emotional drive on the issue is personal: he lost his father to Alzheimer’s last month and has long campaigned for a “national care service.” For the Tories, the challenge is to avoid another 2017-style disaster while offering voters a credible alternative. Whether they can dodge the fight remains to be seen, but for now, the plan is to let Labour’s proposals do the damage to themselves.