European wind power: record 2025 installations, growing bottlenecks, and the road to 2030
European wind power capacity continued its upward trajectory through 2025 and into 2026, with record installations reported in several markets. According to industry data, the EU’s combined onshore and offshore wind fleet now exceeds 240 GW of installed capacity, with offshore alone approaching 40 GW. The buildout is the largest single contributor to the bloc’s expanding renewable electricity supply — but it is not happening fast enough to meet the EU’s 2030 targets without acceleration.
The 2030 target gap
The EU’s revised Renewable Energy Directive set a binding target of at least 42.5% renewable energy in final consumption by 2030, with member states encouraged to aim for 45%. Translating that into wind capacity, industry analyses converge on a need for around 425 GW of EU wind by the end of the decade — meaning capacity must roughly double in five years from current levels. Annual installations would need to rise sharply from the 2025 pace to keep that trajectory.
The offshore wind story
Offshore wind is where the most ambition meets the most reality. The North Sea cooperation between Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, and the UK targets 120 GW of offshore wind by 2030 and 300 GW by 2050. National auctions in 2025 produced both record capacity awards and several troubled bids that highlighted cost pressures from interest rates, supply chain inflation, and grid connection delays.
The supply chain squeeze
The wind industry’s bottlenecks have shifted from permitting (still important) to industrial capacity. Turbine manufacturers, particularly in offshore, have order books stretching into the late 2020s. Cable manufacturing is constrained — particularly for high-voltage direct current cables for offshore export. Specialised installation vessels are oversubscribed. Port infrastructure for offshore assembly is being expanded across Europe, but the lead times are years, not months.
The grid problem
Even when wind capacity is built, getting electricity to where it is needed is becoming the binding constraint. Grid connection queues in Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Spain stretch into the next decade. The EU’s Action Plan for Grids, adopted in 2023, set out priorities, but transmission build is structurally slow: planning, permitting, financing, construction. The mismatch between generation buildout and grid expansion is generating curtailment volumes that already represent a significant economic loss.
The local opposition factor
Onshore wind, in particular, faces persistent local opposition in several member states. Permitting timelines, despite EU acceleration directives, remain long. Fast-track designations under the Net Zero Industry Act and the renewable energy emergency regulation have helped at the margin, but they have not transformed the picture. Community ownership models, which several member states are now incentivising, may be the most reliable way to sustain political support.
The investment outlook
For investors, 2026 is a year of careful selection. Cost of capital has come down from 2024 highs but remains higher than in the 2010s. Auction designs increasingly include indexation mechanisms to share inflation risk. The European Investment Bank and national green investment vehicles are stepping up support. Industry consensus: the wind buildout will continue, but the easy gains are over. The next decade will reward execution discipline more than ambition.
