Boeing shares tumble after cautious growth forecast

Boeing shares fell sharply on Tuesday after the company released a cautious growth forecast, with the stock dropping approximately 9% following CEO Kelly Ortberg’s comments on production ramp-up timelines. The aerospace giant said it does not expect 737 MAX output to reach 52 aircraft per month until the second half of 2027, a slower pace than many analysts had anticipated. Ortberg, who joined Boeing as CEO in August 2024, emphasized the need to first stabilize production at 47 aircraft per month.

Production stabilization takes priority

Ortberg acknowledged that the company is making progress but stressed that more work remains. “We’re making progress, but we still have more work to do, and I’m expecting it’ll take us into next year to get fully stable at this rate,” he said. He cited the need for predictability in wings production and fuselages at the Kansas operation as key factors. “It’s more important that we do this ramp right than what particular month we achieve a rate break,” Ortberg added.

The CEO also addressed the company’s financial targets, indicating that the goal of $10 billion in annual free cash flow is now expected by 2029. This timeframe disappointed investors, as analysts had hoped for a quicker achievement. “Everybody wants us to go faster. I get that, but we’re going to stay disciplined as we ramp up here,” Ortberg said.

Financial results and recent challenges

Boeing reported a third-quarter loss of $116 million, significantly narrower than the $5.3 billion loss in the same period last year, which was largely due to 777X certification delays. However, the loss per share was larger than analysts had expected, and shares did not move significantly after the earnings press release. Revenues rose 4% to $24.2 billion, driven by increased deliveries in defense, space, and security, as well as higher Boeing Global Services sales, though commercial aircraft revenues dipped from the previous year.

The company delivered 161 aircraft in the quarter, one more than the same period in 2025. Executives expressed confidence that the much-delayed 777X will be certified in 2027, with projected deliveries of 10 to 15 aircraft next year. “We’re providing this with confidence that the team’s ready to go execute,” Ortberg stated.

Supply chain concerns and cultural transformation

Aviation expert Richard Aboulafia of AeroDynamic Advisory noted in an email to AFP that Boeing is making “slow but steady” progress, but warned that “the supply chain remains a major concern and one that’s only partly in Boeing’s control.” Boeing has faced prior crises, including two deadly 737 MAX crashes and a January 2024 incident in which a 737 MAX window blew out mid-flight, leading to criticism that the company’s culture had prioritized quick payoffs over safety. Ortberg highlighted the company’s efforts over the past two years, citing “exceptional progress restoring trust, retiring risk, and transforming our culture and rebuilding the foundation of safety and quality that will help ensure durable success.” He also mentioned the FAA certification of the 737 MAX 7 and 737 MAX 10, as well as a “transformational” Pentagon award for U.S. Navy next-generation fighter jets. Boeing expects free cash flow of approximately $2 billion in 2026, $6 billion in 2028, and $10 billion in 2029, with higher amounts thereafter.