Bulgaria’s presidential run-off set for Nov 1 amid record low turnout and Ukraine war divisions

Bulgaria’s presidential election will go to a run-off on November 1 after no candidate secured the required majority in Sunday’s first round, which saw record low voter turnout of less than 40 percent. To win outright, a candidate needed more than half of valid votes with over half of eligible voters participating. Incumbent President Iliana Yotova led with 41-47 percent, while her main challenger, former caretaker prime minister Andrey Gyurov, polled at 28-31 percent. The war in Ukraine was a central theme, with candidates holding vastly different views on relations with Moscow.

Yotova, 62, favors dialogue with Moscow as a path to peace in Ukraine and opposes military aid to Kyiv. She took over the presidency this year after Rumen Radev stepped down to run in parliamentary elections that brought him to power as prime minister. A win for Yotova would boost Radev, who also advocates dialogue with Moscow, and would make her Bulgaria’s first elected female president. Gyurov, 50, is backed by the pro-Western opposition and is an outspoken critic of Radev’s foreign policy. He strongly supports Bulgaria’s Euro-Atlantic ties as an EU and NATO member, and as caretaker prime minister he signed a security cooperation agreement with Kyiv.

Black Sea drone attacks raise security concerns

This month, four merchant ships were allegedly hit by drones off Bulgaria’s coast in a suspected spillover from the conflict in Ukraine. The attacks prompted Bulgaria to seek assistance from allies to strengthen maritime security. Additionally, Starlink satellite internet antennas, which are important to Ukraine’s defense capabilities, were set on fire near the capital Sofia. Radev said the attacks seemed to be to the advantage of Russia and summoned the Russian ambassador, though his government declined to directly blame Moscow.

Turnout was estimated at 15.1 percent by 3 p.m. local time, according to polling agency Myara and Bulgarian media reports. Nearly half of the 27 pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates were openly pro-Kremlin. The leader of the pro-Russian far-right Vazrazhdane party, Kostadinov, placed third with 10-13 percent. Rising energy prices and inflation were main issues for voters in the EU’s poorest member state, along with hopes for a stable government after years of elections and coalition breakdowns.

After casting her ballot in Sofia, Yotova called for peace, stability and unity, urging an end to divisions among Bulgarians. Gyurov, voting in Blagoevgrad, called for a Bulgaria that looks ahead and offers families greater economic security. The presidency is largely ceremonial, but the head of state can appoint interim governments during political crises, serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and can veto legislation. Official results are expected within 48 hours, with polling stations open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. for the run-off.