Ireland Takes the EU Helm With Enlargement at the Top of the Agenda

When Ireland assumes the rotating presidency of the EU Council on 1 July 2026, it will inherit a European enlargement agenda more active than at any point since the bloc’s historic expansion of 2004 — an expansion that Dublin itself shepherded into being. With Montenegro on the cusp of membership, Ukraine and Moldova accelerating through the accession process, and Albania moving forward on its first negotiating chapters, the next six months will test whether the EU’s renewed commitment to enlargement can translate into tangible, durable progress.

Montenegro: The Finish Line in Sight

Of all the candidates in the accession queue, Montenegro stands closest to the threshold of membership. Having opened accession negotiations in 2012, it has the longest-running active candidacy in the bloc’s history — a record that reflects both the complexity of the process and the persistent gaps in Podgorica’s reform record.

The Irish Presidency has set itself an ambitious target: complete all remaining negotiating chapters and sign an accession treaty with Montenegro before the end of 2026. Dublin has already scheduled more frequent meetings of the working group drafting the accession treaty, signalling a deliberate acceleration of pace.

Should that treaty be signed and subsequently ratified by all 27 member states within the expected window of 12 to 18 months, Montenegro could formally become EU member state number 28 as early as 2028 — a milestone that would mark the first enlargement since Croatia’s accession in 2013.

The sticking points, however, remain politically sensitive. Chapters 23 and 24 — covering the rule of law, fundamental rights, justice and home affairs — continue to pose the most serious challenges. Concerns persist over the independence of the judiciary, the penetration of organised crime into public institutions, and the pace of structural reform. Ireland’s diplomatic task will be to maintain pressure on Podgorica while keeping the process on schedule.

Ukraine: New Momentum After a Hungarian Breakthrough

For Ukraine, the landmark moment came on 15 June 2026 with the opening of Cluster 1, labelled “Fundamentals” — the first cluster to be opened in three years. The breakthrough followed an agreement between Kyiv and Hungary’s new Prime Minister, Péter Magyar, on the rights of the Hungarian-speaking minority in western Ukraine, unblocking a veto that had stalled proceedings for an extended period.

The Irish Presidency is expected to open two additional clusters as early as July, with further clusters pencilled in for the autumn. The ambition is to sustain a rhythm of progress that keeps Ukraine’s European path credible, particularly given the political stakes of the ongoing war.

Not all member states are aligned on pace, however. Poland and Czechia have advocated for a so-called “salami approach” — opening clusters sequentially and cautiously rather than in an accelerated bundle. The position reflects genuine concerns about reform implementation but also domestic political sensitivities. A further complication looms in Warsaw: tensions between Polish President Nawrocki and President Zelenskyy risk placing the Polish government in a difficult position, caught between internal political dynamics and its formal EU responsibilities during a pivotal phase of negotiations.

Moldova: Quietly Ahead of Schedule

Perhaps the most underreported development in the current enlargement cycle is Moldova’s steady progress. Chisinau opened Cluster 1 simultaneously with Ukraine on 15 June 2026, and its smaller institutional footprint has allowed for a more consistent implementation of reforms — currently measured at a 78 percent implementation rate, a figure that compares favourably with larger candidates.

If the pace is maintained, analysts and EU officials consider full membership realistic within the 2029–2031 window. Moldova’s trajectory offers a rare piece of straightforward good news in an otherwise complex enlargement landscape.

Albania: First Chapters Within Reach

Albania’s candidacy has advanced more quietly. The outgoing Cypriot Presidency may close the first negotiating chapters with Tirana before the 30 June handover. If that milestone is not reached before the transition, Ireland is expected to deliver it in July — a symbolic but meaningful step forward for a country that has long struggled to move beyond the early stages of the process.

Ireland’s Enlargement Pedigree

Dublin brings considerable political capital to this presidency. Ireland has held the Council Presidency seven times, and the 2004 “big bang” enlargement — which brought ten new member states into the bloc in a single wave — remains the most significant expansion in EU history. Irish diplomats report that the 2004 presidency is still remembered with genuine warmth across Central and Eastern Europe, providing Dublin with a reservoir of goodwill that could prove valuable in navigating the current cycle’s more contentious dossiers.

What to Watch

In the months ahead, the key indicators will be whether Ireland can secure the signature of Montenegro’s accession treaty before the end of its presidency, how many clusters Ukraine opens by December, and whether Polish domestic politics generate friction within the Council on the pace of Kyiv’s negotiations. Moldova’s reform rate will also bear watching as a barometer for the credibility of the EU’s enlargement commitments more broadly. If Dublin can deliver on even two of these fronts, the Irish Presidency of 2026 may come to be seen as the moment the EU’s enlargement agenda moved from rhetoric back into reality.